We know that in the past long-term unemployment has had lifetime effects on people and families. We also know that over half of all people unemployed for six months or longer in the past, when hired again, were in completely different fields.
You could say that such a dramatic rise in longterm unemployment has given the chance for new and emerging firms to have their pick of experienced talent from a wide variety of fields and that this is an opportunity for an outdated US economy to shift towards 21st Century jobs.
Effects that aren’t being talked about so much: children born in poverty over the past two years (and next XXX years) that otherwise wouldn’t have been and have lacked access to adequate nutrition, medical care, love/affection/nurturing, etc; whether we will be able to get out out of a downward spiral of [unemployment --> less money for job retraining, safety net benefits, etc ---> more unemployment] etc (we have simply never dealt with this large a mass of people unable to find jobs before); the unequal distribution of the above – especially by race and age, and what that means for how recovery might or might not happen in various communities.
Based on all the last recessions, it seems there is very little noise or oscillation at the top of the peak. Once it starts moving down, it continues. So far, there is no sign of a turnaround here, but if we do see one, I think we can say that all things being equal, it should continue. However, all other recessions have occurred pre Peak Oil, when there was plenty of easily accessible petro-energy to rev up the economy. It is unclear that that is the case this time.
It is worth at least a mention, that as we see so many of these indicators push into places that they have never been, that there is the opportunity that people will start to question the entire structure of “jobs”/”work”. A shift to a new norms of what “sufficient material wealth” looks like and why it is that some people are able to maintain their lifestyle while many others can’t is one possible/hopeful outcome here.
